Trump, Obama tout clashing visions of United States as elections near

Susan Walsh  APPresident Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Estero Fla. Oct. 31 2018

Democrats' focus is largely on snatching back the House and picking up governors' seats in Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio and elsewhere. "The people are sort of holding for Tuesday", Trump said after asking the audience whether they'd already voted.

Trump's shadow has hung over the midterm elections that will determine the future of his presidency, with the monthslong fight serving as a testing ground for his nationalist appeals and the strength of the coalition that powered him to the White House two years ago.

"In 2014 they said Ebola is going to kill all of us, shut the borders". Analysts were all over the board in 2016, with some giving Clinton a 99 percent (!) chance of winning, but FiveThirtyEight's final forecast placed Trump's chances of victory on the eve of the election at better than one in four.

"[It will mean] he can fire Jeff Sessions and essentially end the Mueller investigation and replace him with the attorney general of his choosing".

What it would mean: This would be a clear repudiation of Trump, and there would be no other way to spin it.

How the House operates can change dramatically with a shift in party control. "I voted a straight Democratic ticket (via absentee) for the first time in my life in this election, including for one candidate I believe is inferior to his GOP opponent".

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House (and, if she gets her wish, install Rep. Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, again).

The outcome is clouded by the dramatically different landscape between the House and Senate. Their memories from 2016, when they watched in disbelief as Donald Trump defied polls, expectations and political norms, are still fresh. "There could be the threat of a government shutdown", Mr Kondik said.

"This is going to come down to a few votes", McCarthy said.

"Democrats are turning out".

On the other side, Republicans led with voters between the ages of 50 and 64 (52 percent to 43 percent), men (50 percent to 43 percent) and whites (50 percent to 44 percent). Key committees do have the authority to trigger the Treasury secretary to respond to a request for tax filings, but it's unclear what kind of legal battle would ensue.

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Trump has maintained a busy campaign schedule in the final stretch of the race, with 11 rallies over six days.

Republicans could also use the power of the Senate to keep shaping the judiciary, according to Mr Kondik. If the map were anywhere close to neutral, and the environment were as it is, Democrats would be virtually guaranteed a House takeover right now.

"The only check right now on the behaviour of these Republicans is you and your vote", Obama told supporters in Gary, Indiana, during a rally for endangered Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly.

Andre Lockett, 48, said he's been trying to talk to younger people about the importance of showing up for Tuesday's elections.

But Republicans who have been down this road before offer words of caution - be careful what you wish for. Those who fueled that movement demanded instant results.

"Analysts at Nomura suggest that the 2018 U.S. midterm elections will be the highlight of this week and at the moment, the most likely outcome is a Democrat takeover of the House, while Republicans maintain control of the Senate".

That has left many Democrats, particularly those from the party's liberal progressive wing, frustrated.

"These constituencies are gonna expect abolishing ICE. Instead they've racked up enough indictments to field a football team", Obama said.

In 2010, the Tea Party swing of 63 seats gave the Republicans the House: Barack Obama would never get control of it back.

But why is it so hard for Republicans to win the House without a systematic polling miss? Their left-wing activist base will demand they move quickly to impeach the president. "I played by the rules, what can I say?".

The analysts also wrote that a potential error in the polls might not necessarily skew toward Republicans, allowing for the possibility of a bigger Democratic win than is now projected.

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